The fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran, underpinned by the memorandum of understanding signed last year, appears to be under severe strain. Unless both sides adopt immediate deconfliction measures and exercise restraint, the risk of a return to full‑scale hostilities looms large. The latest escalation began with suspected Iranian attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly targeted for not adhering to routes designated by Tehran. Washington responded with strikes on Iranian facilities, prompting retaliatory attacks by Tehran on sites in Kuwait and Bahrain that it claimed were linked to the US.

What has further unsettled observers is President Donald Trump’s declaration that the MoU with Iran is “over” and that dialogue with the Islamic Republic is a “waste of time.” His words carry weight, given his earlier decision to terminate the Iran nuclear deal during his first presidency. Yet, paradoxically, even as he used harsh language to describe Iran, he left the door open for renewed talks.

A return to hostilities benefits no one, except perhaps those in Israel who have long opposed reconciliation between Washington and Tehran. Both sides must step back from the brink and prevent the cycle of violence from spiraling. The coming days will be decisive in determining whether the ceasefire and the MoU can survive. Iran must ensure free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, as any attempt to choke this vital corridor would have devastating consequences for the global economy.

The United States, for its part, must temper its rhetoric and allow diplomacy to continue. President Trump’s bombastic threats only strengthen the position of hard‑liners within Iran who argue that America cannot be trusted. The international community is also aware that Israel has consistently opposed US‑Iran peace efforts and may seek to undermine them. Both Washington and Tehran must remain alert to Tel Aviv’s disruptive influence.

One step the US could take to stabilize the situation is reinstating the waiver granted to Iran under the MoU, which allowed it to sell oil. The waiver was withdrawn as hostilities resumed, further aggravating tensions. Additionally, Israel’s ongoing attacks in Lebanon must cease, as Tehran has cited these actions as a direct threat to the peace process.

Regional mediators, particularly Pakistan and Qatar, should intensify their efforts to preserve the truce. Achieving stability in the Gulf was never going to be easy, but abandoning the peace process would be disastrous. The alternative is a return to war, with catastrophic consequences for the people of the region and for the global economy. That makes it imperative for all signatories of the MoU, along with regional stakeholders, to continue working towards peace and to resist the forces that seek to derail it.