Fragile peace accord

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After three and a half months of devastating conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, marked by an uneasy temporary ceasefire, a genuine opportunity for peace has emerged. Early Monday, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced what the international community had been anxiously awaiting: an immediate and permanent cessation of military operations across all fronts, including Lebanon. Soon after, US President Donald Trump offered his congratulations, while Tehran also confirmed its commitment to the agreement.

The war had pitted two competing visions for the Middle East against each other, but its consequences extended far beyond the region. Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and America’s naval restrictions on Iranian ports disrupted global commerce, rattling energy markets and trade flows. The removal of these obstacles, with the signing of the peace deal scheduled in Geneva under Pakistan’s aegis, represents a significant diplomatic breakthrough.

Pakistan’s role in facilitating this outcome has been considerable. From hosting US‑Iranian talks in Islamabad in April to engaging in intensive diplomacy to sustain the earlier ceasefire, Pakistan’s leadership worked tirelessly to prevent a return to full‑scale hostilities. This contribution has been acknowledged by the UN secretary general and numerous nations, who have praised Pakistan alongside Qatar, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia for their efforts in securing peace.

While most of the world has welcomed the agreement, Tel Aviv has expressed dissatisfaction. Israel, which had played a central role in encouraging Washington to attack Iran, is unsettled by the fact that the Islamic Republic has survived the joint Israeli‑American offensive. Reports suggest that the deal includes provisions to halt Israeli military operations in Lebanon, further fuelling discontent in Tel Aviv.

The question now is whether this fragile agreement can endure. At present, it is little more than a memorandum of understanding, designed to silence weapons and create space for dialogue. Long‑term peace will require far more effort. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action negotiated during the Obama era took nearly 20 months to conclude, underscoring that complex disputes cannot be resolved overnight.

For the deal to hold, both sides must commit to sustained dialogue and refrain from hostilities. Crucially, Washington must provide genuine sanctions relief to Tehran to build trust. After the collapse of the JCPOA and two direct military strikes on Iran, mistrust of the Trump administration runs deep within the Iranian establishment. Confidence can only be rebuilt through respect, sincerity, and tangible concessions. Moreover, Israel’s actions must be restrained by Washington to prevent renewed instability.

The announcement of a permanent ceasefire is a welcome development, but it is only the beginning of a long process. If approached with seriousness and mutual respect, this agreement could mark the first step towards a more stable Middle East. Pakistan’s diplomatic success has created the opening; now it is up to the principal actors to ensure that peace is not squandered.

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