Political rhetoric often leans heavily on clichés, but when repeated endlessly, they lose their force. This was evident when Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb concluded the National Assembly debate on his third ‘relief and growth’ budget. His words, intended to inspire confidence, instead sounded tired and unconvincing.

The budget does contain some positive measures. Tax relief for higher‑earning salaried individuals, concessional loans for farmers, subsidies on fertiliser, and reduced duties on agricultural equipment are all welcome interventions. Yet these steps largely benefit select groups, leaving low‑ to middle‑income households and ordinary salaried workers without meaningful relief. The minister’s pledge to reduce direct interaction between taxpayers and officials through automation is commendable, as it addresses a longstanding grievance about harassment within the tax system. However, a budget is more than a collection of relief measures; it is a declaration of priorities, and in this respect, serious questions remain unanswered.

Mr Aurangzeb’s central claim is that the FY27 budget will lay the foundation for “sustainable, export‑led growth.” This phrase has been repeated by successive governments, but rarely examined critically. Export‑led growth cannot be achieved through subsidies and loan schemes alone. It requires productivity gains, innovation, and the ability to produce goods and services that global markets demand. On this front, the budget is conspicuously weak. There is no coherent industrial policy aimed at moving exports up the value chain. While investment in downstream agricultural infrastructure and cooperation with China are welcome, there is no clear roadmap for enhancing farm productivity to support export competitiveness.

Instead, the budget leans heavily on real estate as the engine of near‑term growth. This reliance is not new; it has long been the default strategy in Pakistan’s economic management. Real estate activity generates demand, creates jobs, and produces growth figures that sound impressive in speeches. Yet history shows that property‑driven booms are unsustainable. They inflate quickly, crowd out productive investment, and eventually collapse, leaving behind the same structural weaknesses that necessitated the boom in the first place.

The government’s repeated promises to broaden the tax base have similarly lost credibility. Such commitments ring hollow when policies continue to provide loopholes for untaxed sectors like real estate and retail. This contradiction undermines the very foundation of sustainable growth. The budget may deliver short‑term expansion, but without structural reforms, it will not endure.

Pakistan’s economy requires a shift away from cosmetic measures and towards genuine productivity‑driven growth. That means investing in industries that can compete globally, strengthening agricultural output for exports, and ensuring that taxation is fair and broad‑based. Without these steps, the promise of sustainability will remain a slogan rather than a reality.