Global temperatures could reach or exceed record levels in 2027 as a strong El Niño develops in the tropical Pacific, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warning that the climate phenomenon could continue influencing temperatures and weather patterns into next year.
The WMO says El Niño is already established and is expected to strengthen further, with forecasts indicating a near-100% likelihood that it will persist through February 2027. The organisation says the event could contribute to higher global temperatures while increasing the risk of extreme heat, drought and unusual rainfall patterns in different regions.
2027 Among the Years to Watch
A separate WMO global climate update released in May 2026 estimated an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record. The report does not identify a specific year as certain to set the record, but it notes that El Niño conditions are particularly likely in 2027 and 2028.
The WMO’s lead author, Dr Leon Hermanson, said an El Niño expected toward the end of 2026 increases the chances that 2027 could become the next record-breaking year.
The WMO currently identifies 2024 as the warmest year on record. Its 2026–2030 outlook projects annual global temperatures between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 average.
El Niño Could Affect Weather Patterns Worldwide
El Niño is associated with changes in atmospheric circulation, rainfall and temperature patterns around the world. According to the WMO, a very strong event can increase the likelihood of extreme heat, floods and droughts, although its effects vary significantly by region and season.
The WMO expects the current El Niño to peak towards the end of 2026, with its climate effects continuing into 2027. Exceptionally warm conditions in the tropical Pacific are contributing to the strengthening of the event.
The organisation also cautions that individual years temporarily exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels should not be confused with the long-term warming threshold under the Paris Agreement, which is assessed over a much longer period.