ISLAMABAD: Pakistan can draw lessons from China’s carbon-peaking model to align climate action more closely with industrial development, energy security and export competitiveness, while adapting the approach to its own fiscal and institutional constraints, experts say.
The assessment comes as Pakistan moves from climate commitments towards implementation under its Third Nationally Determined Contribution, or NDC 3.0, which targets a 50% reduction in projected greenhouse gas emissions by 2035.
Of that reduction, 17% is expected to come from domestic resources, while 33% depends on international finance, technology transfer and capacity building. The plan estimates total investment requirements at $565.7 billion.
China’s Integrated Climate Model
China’s approach is built around a “1+N” policy framework, combining a top-level climate strategy with sector-specific implementation plans covering energy, industry, transport, buildings and other parts of the economy.
Under its 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026-2030, China aims to cut carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 17% from 2025 levels by 2030 and increase the share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption to 25%.
China has also moved from focusing mainly on energy intensity to a dual-control system covering both total carbon emissions and carbon intensity, integrating climate targets with broader industrial and economic planning.
Experts say the central lesson for Pakistan is not to copy China’s model in full, but to adopt the discipline of integrating emissions targets with energy policy, industrial planning and economic growth.
Angelo Kairos Dela Cruz, Executive Director of the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities, said developing economies such as Pakistan have an opportunity to pursue economic growth and climate action at the same time.
“Climate action is just a better way of developing,” he said.
Dela Cruz said renewable energy could help Pakistan lower emissions while opening new economic opportunities.
He said businesses, including micro, small and medium enterprises, could be encouraged to move towards greener production through incentives for environmentally friendly and lower-carbon goods.
Green Industry and New Investment
Greater electrification and wider use of renewable energy could also support green industrialisation, he said.
Industrial zones and economic corridors with better access to renewable power could help attract investment in emerging sectors such as data centres, outsourced business services and electric vehicles.
Talha Khan, co-founder and CEO of climate-focused venture Carbon Craft, said Pakistan should adopt the “discipline behind the Chinese approach” rather than attempt to replicate China’s model wholesale.
He said China’s main lesson was the integration of climate targets with industrial planning, energy security and growth, while Pakistan would need to adapt that approach to more limited fiscal resources and institutional capacity.
Khan said Pakistan should first establish a credible emissions baseline and develop realistic transition pathways for the energy, industry, transport and land-use sectors.
These targets, he said, should be incorporated into existing economic and industrial planning rather than treated as a separate climate-policy exercise.
He also called for clear responsibilities for federal and provincial institutions, backed by measurable targets and annual reporting.
Energy Sector Seen as First Priority
Khan identified the energy sector as Pakistan’s immediate priority, arguing that high transmission and distribution losses, unreliable power supply and circular debt raise the cost of both conventional production and green industrialisation.
He said Pakistan should improve grid efficiency, provide industry with reliable and competitively priced cleaner energy, and link industrial financing and incentives to measurable improvements in energy efficiency.
For exporters, textiles are likely to be among the most exposed sectors as international buyers increasingly assess energy use, water consumption, supply-chain traceability and product-level emissions.
Khan said cement, steel and fertiliser producers should also begin facility-level emissions accounting and prepare technology-upgrade plans aimed at improving efficiency and cutting emissions.
Carbon Markets Could Create New Opportunities
Pakistan has also begun operationalising Article 6 carbon markets, with the Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination granting host-country approval to initial carbon-offset projects.
Khan welcomed the move but said implementation would determine whether the system delivers credible results.
He said high-quality carbon projects require specialised local expertise, reliable emissions accounting, appropriate safeguards, technical preparation and patient capital.
Pakistan should initially focus on strong opportunities in industrial efficiency, agriculture, waste management, forestry and ecosystem restoration rather than pursuing a large number of projects without adequate preparation, he added.
Experts said Pakistan could adapt China’s integrated model by linking emissions targets with energy and industrial policy while designing implementation mechanisms suited to local conditions.
Improving access to reliable clean energy, strengthening industrial efficiency, developing credible carbon markets and setting measurable institutional targets could help Pakistan turn climate commitments into economic and export opportunities.
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