“Blood and water cannot flow together.”
After Pulwama, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statement mere rhetoric or the beginning of a new narrative?
The Indus Waters Treaty brokered by the World Bank in 1960, is counted among the world’s most successful water agreements. Despite three wars between Pakistan and India, the treaty held. But in recent years, terms like “review” and “reconsideration” used by the Indian government have raised a new question mark over its legal status.
India has unilaterally suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, even though the treaty contains no clause for unilateral suspension. Therefore, the International Court of Arbitration has declared this suspension illegal.
Experts say that if this agreement is weakened, Pakistan’s agriculture, electricity, and food security will be directly affected because 90% of Pakistan’s agricultural land is irrigated by these western rivers.
According to experts, building dams to stop or slow the flow of water, withholding data during floods or droughts or using water as a political pressure tool when needed is called water aggression, Hydro-Politics, or Hydrological Manipulation. And this is a form of Low-Intensity War – one in which no bullets are fired but economies are paralyzed.
In South Asia, not only Pakistan but other neighboring countries are also victims of the Low-Intensity War imposed by India.
The Farakka Barrage on the Ganges River has been controversial for a long time. Bangladesh’s position is that water shortages during the dry season affect agriculture and fisheries.
There is widespread debate in Nepal over the Kosi, Gandak, and Mahakali treaties, that the economic benefits are unbalanced. Nepal believes that India gains more from its water resources.
Pakistan’s fundamental concern regarding Indian water projects is that they violate the spirit of the Indus Waters Treaty. Specific questions are raised about exceeding the stipulated storage capacity, releasing water without prior notice and altering the timing of flows.
India’s financial and technical assistance for 12 water projects on the Kabul River and Kunar River is disrupting the region’s water balance. Pakistan’s stance is that any major project on the Kabul River without consultation with Pakistan could harm regional peace.
Regarding the equitable distribution of water, the Helsinki Rules of 1966 and the United Nations Watercourses Convention of 1997 outline five basic principles:
1. No country can stop all the water.
2. An upstream country cannot harm a downstream country.
3. A river and its tributaries constitute one single unit – a basin.
4. Prior notification is mandatory before any major project.
5. Water disputes should be resolved through dialogue, mediation or the courts.
These are principles, not strictly binding laws. But today these very principles have become a test for South Asia because there is no international mechanism to enforce them.
In the current situation, the question is: Will water become South Asia’s next weapon? Or is stopping water necessary to shed blood?