PERTH, November 9, 2026: Global oil prices declined on Monday after US President Donald Trump indicated that further American military strikes against Iran were highly unlikely as negotiations aimed at ending the conflict showed signs of progress.
Brent crude futures fell 84 cents, or 0.85%, to $97.48 per barrel by 0138 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 32 cents, or 0.35%, to $90.51 per barrel.
The decline came as investors reassessed geopolitical risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route for global energy supplies, following Trump’s comments suggesting a reduced likelihood of renewed military action.
Speaking to CNN in a telephone interview, Trump said additional attacks on Iran would depend on whether the two countries reached a strong agreement.
He described further military action as highly unlikely to be necessary if negotiations produced a satisfactory outcome.
The remarks followed earlier indications that Washington might resume strikes against Iran after the US midterm elections. However, no large-scale American military operation has materialised.
Iran has previously warned that renewed US attacks would trigger retaliation against American and Israeli targets.
Brent crude records sharp weekly decline
Monday’s losses reversed modest gains recorded at Friday’s settlement, when traders were assessing the possibility of further US military action against Iran.
Brent crude had already fallen 17% during the previous week, marking its steepest weekly percentage decline since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to LSEG data dating back to 1988, the decline was also the largest weekly drop in absolute dollar terms over that period.
The sharp correction reflected changing market expectations about the conflict, alongside concerns over global oil demand and increasing supply.
Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, described Trump’s latest comments as more measured than his earlier statements.
However, he said investors remained uncertain whether the US midterm elections had produced a lasting change in Washington’s approach to the Iran conflict or merely a temporary shift in rhetoric.
Global oil supply concerns ease
Beyond geopolitical developments, expectations of rising global oil supplies have added downward pressure on crude prices.
JPMorgan said in a report released Friday that recovering Middle Eastern oil flows, increasing production from other countries and weaker demand were pushing the global market towards another supply surplus.
The bank estimated that global oil supply exceeded consumption by approximately 1.1 million barrels per day in September, with the surplus widening to 1.4 million barrels per day in October.
These projections suggest that improving supply conditions could continue weighing on oil prices even as geopolitical tensions remain unresolved.
Iraq reaches understanding on Hormuz oil exports
In a separate development, Iraq reached an understanding with the United States to facilitate Iraqi oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz using a shipping lane near Oman.
Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein disclosed the arrangement during an interview with Al Jazeera on Sunday.
He said Iraq had suffered approximately $60 billion in losses because of the Iran conflict and disruptions to its oil exports.
The development could help ease some of the supply concerns that have affected international energy markets during the conflict.
Nevertheless, security risks in the region remain significant.
Both Iran and the United States have reported attacks involving vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring continuing uncertainty over maritime security.
Separately, Yemen’s Houthi movement claimed responsibility for an attack on Saudi Aramco offices in Riyadh on Sunday.
The incident reportedly damaged windows at the facility, although no casualties were reported.
Oil traders are expected to continue monitoring US-Iran negotiations, shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz and global supply trends for indications of the market’s next direction.