By Kokab Rathore

To find out what China is doing and what it is thinking, one must consult the famous book “The Art of War” by the Chinese philosopher and military strategist Sun Tzu, a figure accorded central status in China’s doctrinal tradition. His mode of thought has influenced even the world’s great military powers. Sun Tzu observes: “If you sit long enough by the riverbank, the bodies of your enemies will eventually float past.”

China’s conduct in the context of the Iran conflict reflects precisely this logic. When the United States intensified its military operations against Iran, Beijing refrained from direct intervention, adopting instead a cautious, quiet strategy. China’s priority is not war but the exercise of economic power. It has made clear that it will not hesitate to use economic strength as political leverage, since financial pressure is more controllable than warfare, which entails unpredictable outcomes and heavy human and material costs.

It is true that China and the United States, unlike the Cold War rivals, are not outright enemies. As the world’s two largest economies, they are bound together by intricate trade and investment ties. Nonetheless, strategic competition between them is steadily rising, especially in advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence a race that may determine the global balance of power in this century.

Meanwhile, even as war rages in the Middle East, China has quietly unveiled its new five-year plan: a blueprint to strengthen its global lead in artificial intelligence, defense technology, quantum computing, critical minerals, and robotics. While the United States is absorbed in military campaigns, China is consolidating its industrial and technological foundations steps that could erode American primacy.

Yet the Middle Eastern war remains significant for Beijing. Before the conflict, nearly 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports went to China, and in 2023 Beijing played a pivotal role in restoring diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Still, China does not favour a prolonged, devastating war. Regional instability would jeopardize its investments, the Belt and Road Initiative, and energy supplies. Accordingly, its strategy emphasizes cautious waiting, economic influence, and long-term planning rather than direct military intervention seeking advantage through the balance of power rather than its overt use.

That said, China has not left Iran unsupported on the battlefield. According to Al Jazeera, Beijing has in recent years supplied Iranian defense forces with technologies that enhance surveillance and targeting advanced radar systems, satellite navigation, and signals intelligence. Notably, with China’s BeiDou-3 navigation system, Iran has reduced its reliance on the U.S. GPS, improving both security and responsiveness.

Of particular importance is the YLC-8B anti-stealth radar, a low-frequency system designed to detect stealth aircraft such as the U.S. B-21 Raider and F-35C Lightning II. While this does not nullify stealth technology, it alters battlefield calculations. Al Jazeera also reports that Iran is close to acquiring the CM-302 supersonic anti-ship missile—an export version of China’s YJ-12. Flying at nearly Mach 3 and skimming sea level, it compresses an enemy vessel’s reaction time to seconds, earning it the label “carrier killer.”

China’s outlook remains faithful to the great Sun Tzu: “When strong, appear weak; when weak, appear strong.”