By: Iftikhar Khattak
The historical, war-torn valleys of the Himalayas, as well as the oceans of the Pacific, are shaping the global power dynamics of the twenty-first century. A dangerous and unstable strategic triangle including the US, India, and Pakistan is at the centre of this geopolitical change. In a region with nuclear weapons, this relationship—which is characterised by long-standing rivalries and recent alliances—holds the key to either stability or anarchy. South Asia has been affected by the long-lasting and intense rivalry between India and Pakistan for many years.
The disputed region of Kashmir is still an open wound, an ongoing point of contention that has sparked several conflicts and is still fueling a dangerous weapons race. Their international alliances and rivalries are directly shaped by this bilateral conflict, resulting in a complicated web where every handshake in Washington or Beijing is met with intense mistrust in the other capital.
Pakistan’s Foreign Policy and the Indian Factor
Pakistan, since its establishment in 1947, has built its entire foreign policy around controlling its larger neighbour’s immense influence. Its ties with Afghanistan, China, and the United States are not autonomous; rather, they are heavily impacted by the inescapable “Indian factor.”
The US-India Strategic Embrace
The United States has become the most important foreign actor in this high-stakes situation, with its affiliations and actions significantly influencing the dynamics between Islamabad and New Delhi. Washington’s strategic calculations are evident now. In order to counter Beijing’s growing influence, it has found a willing and capable ally in India. It views China as its primary global competitor. This is not just a relationship; rather, it is a multifaceted collaboration based on enormous economic potential and common democratic principles, which have recently come under scrutiny.
These days, the US and India work together on everything from cutting-edge areas like artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and space to the critical Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with Japan and Australia. Their trade has reached unprecedented levels, over $150 billion, and a sizable and powerful Indian diaspora in America serves as a bridge, promoting ever-closer connections.
Nuclear Deals and Pakistan’s Strategic Concerns
The historic 2005 US-India Civil Nuclear Deal, which fundamentally ended India’s nuclear isolation and acknowledged it as a responsible nuclear state, clearly illustrated the depth of this alliance. However, Pakistan was shocked by this action and saw it as a serious strategic imbalance. Islamabad considers this nuclear cooperation as part of an evolution that ignores its own security concerns in favour of strengthening its adversary. The US-India pair is seen as a direct danger to the country’s survival rather than as a stabilising factor.
China-Pakistan Partnership and CPEC
This view pushes Pakistan into China’s waiting arms, resulting in a system of mirror-image alliances that splits the region. Beijing has been Pakistan’s strong partner since the US first stopped giving aid in the 1960s, offering military equipment, financial assistance, and diplomatic support. The massive $65 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the centrepiece of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), strengthened this partnership in the twenty-first century.
Through the port of Gwadar, CPEC provides China with strategic access to the Arabian Sea while providing Pakistan with an oxygen source for its faltering economy. Pakistan has taken a stand in the big game of geopolitics, mostly in reaction to Washington and New Delhi’s growing embrace.
A Nuclear Tinderbox in South Asia
This triangle tension has horrifyingly real repercussions, not just theoretical ones. One of the most hazardous nuclear weapons races in the world is taking place in South Asia. India and Pakistan together possess an estimated 325 nuclear weapons, making them a nuclear tinderbox. Former US sanctions, including the Pressler Amendment, did not stop Pakistan’s program and instead increased mistrust.
Kashmir and the US Silence
Pakistan is increasingly concerned that its security is being compromised for Washington’s broader Indo-Pacific policy, as it observes with alarm as the US bolsters India’s military and strategic capabilities. This feeling of betrayal also applies to the crucial Kashmir issue. Pakistan has often and largely unsuccessfully asked the US to arbitrate the conflict in the hopes that US pressure would compel India to engage in negotiations.
Rather, Washington has mostly kept quiet, viewing it as a bilateral matter. Islamabad views this as a betrayal, particularly in light of Pakistan’s enormous sacrifices as a front-line partner in the US-led War on Terror.
Afghanistan and Proxy Conflicts
Afghanistan adds to the complexity of the situation. Pakistan has long accused Indian intelligence of aiding terrorist organisations like the Pakistani Taliban and separatist movements in Baluchistan by leveraging its presence in Afghanistan to create unrest inside its borders. Pakistan believed that the US, which was only concerned with its own limited goals, overlooked its concerns over this Indian-Afghan nexus during the two-decade-long war. The future of this regional proxy conflict is still unclear now that the Taliban are back in control, but fundamental doubts are more intense than before.
Diverging Perceptions of US Strategy
The root of the issue is the underlying gap in the US strategy. Although Washington maintains that its ties to Pakistan and India “stand on their own,” Islamabad believes that they are inevitably connected. Every sophisticated weapon system provided to India, every cooperative military drill, and every strategic statement is examined through the lens of how it will affect the balance of power with Pakistan.
The Perilous Divide and the Path Ahead
Pakistan views India as an empowered regional hegemon, whereas the US sees India as a worldwide partner. Pakistan sees the US’s measures as a direct threat, while the US sees them as a means of controlling China. The biggest threat to the stability of South Asia is this perilous perception divide. The United States must negotiate this complex triangle with a more sophisticated and balanced strategy if peace is to have a chance. Although it is strategically important to enhance the relationship with India, Pakistan’s justifiable security concerns cannot be ignored in the process.
Addressing the underlying causes of the India-Pakistan conflict is necessary for a long-term settlement, not only treating its symptoms. The alternative is a region that is always unstable, where just one spark in Kashmir or along the border may start a fire that engulfs all involved.
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