Geopolitical analyst argues Gulf infrastructure risks, petrodollar system, and AI-driven US economy could be vulnerable in prolonged conflict
Toronto / Washington / Riyadh: Chinese-born Canadian geopolitical analyst Professor Jiang Xueqin has claimed that Iran holds multiple strategic advantages over the United States in the escalating regional conflict, arguing that Washington is structurally unprepared for a prolonged 21st-century war.
In a detailed strategic assessment, Jiang described the confrontation as an emerging “war of attrition,” asserting that Iran has spent two decades preparing for such a scenario — ideologically, militarily, and economically.
“Iranian planners have been preparing for this for 20 years,” Jiang said. “In their worldview, this is a civilizational struggle. They see it as a war against the ‘Great Satan.’”
A Shift to Asymmetric Warfare
According to Jiang, the United States remains locked into a Cold War-era military doctrine built around expensive, high-tech systems designed for conventional power projection.
“The U.S. military-industrial complex was built after World War II to fight the Cold War,” he said. “It is not optimized for drone-saturated, asymmetric attritional warfare.”
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He pointed to the economic imbalance in battlefield costs, noting that million-dollar missile defense systems are being used to intercept drones costing a fraction of that amount.
“This asymmetry is not sustainable long-term,” he added.
Gulf States and Global Economic Risk
Jiang further warned that Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries could become primary pressure points in the conflict. He argued that desalination plants, energy infrastructure, and maritime trade routes — particularly the Strait of Hormuz — represent critical vulnerabilities.
“Sixty percent of Gulf water supply comes from desalination plants,” he said. “A $50,000 drone could disable a major facility serving millions.”
He also suggested that disruption of oil exports and Gulf investment flows could destabilize the U.S. financial system, particularly sectors reliant on Gulf capital, including artificial intelligence infrastructure.
“The American economy is heavily dependent on Gulf petrodollars recycled into its markets,” Jiang argued. “If that cycle breaks, it could trigger systemic stress.”
Regime Change Debate
Jiang maintained that airstrikes alone are unlikely to produce regime change in Iran, warning that deployment of U.S. ground forces would carry significant political and military risk.
“History shows airpower alone does not change regimes,” he said. “Ground troops would be required — and that would be enormously costly.”
He also claimed that regional actors, including Saudi Arabia and Israel, may favor a harder U.S. line against Tehran, though such assertions remain politically sensitive and widely debated.
Multipolar World Order
Beyond the immediate battlefield, Jiang framed the conflict as part of a broader geopolitical transition.
“This could mark the beginning of the end of perceived American invincibility,” he said. “We are moving toward a multipolar world.”
While some of Jiang’s claims — particularly those referencing hidden global power networks — remain controversial and lack independent verification, his broader thesis reflects growing debate among analysts about the sustainability of traditional military dominance in an era of drone warfare, economic interdependence, and shifting global alliances.
Professor Jiang Xueqin is the founder of the geopolitical commentary platform Predictive History and a graduate of Yale College.
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