Pakistan’s route to the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2026 semi-finals has narrowed after mixed results in Super Eights Group 2, leaving the team dependent on both its own performance and outcomes elsewhere. With one match remaining, Pakistan’s qualification scenario now hinges on New Zealand’s results and a potentially decisive net run-rate calculation.

After two Super Eights matches, Pakistan sit third in the group with one point — earned from a washed-out fixture against New Zealand — and a defeat to England. England, with two wins from two, have secured a place in the semi-finals and top the table on four points.

How Pakistan can qualify

For Pakistan to progress, several permutations remain in play.

If New Zealand lose both of their remaining matches — against England and Sri Lanka — Pakistan would need only to defeat Sri Lanka in their final group game to finish in the top two and advance.

If New Zealand win one and lose one of their remaining fixtures, Pakistan must beat Sri Lanka and also improve their net run rate sufficiently to surpass the Black Caps in the standings. Net run rate (NRR), which measures the margin of victories and defeats across matches, becomes crucial if teams finish level on points.

However, if New Zealand win both of their remaining games, Pakistan will be eliminated regardless of their own result.

At present, Pakistan’s NRR stands at -0.461, increasing the pressure to secure a convincing win against Sri Lanka if qualification comes down to margins. Sri Lanka, currently bottom of the group with no points and an NRR of -2.550, still have fixtures against both New Zealand and Pakistan and could influence the final standings.

Sri Lanka and England are scheduled to meet in Colombo today as the Super Eights phase enters its decisive stage.

With England already through, the second semi-final spot from Group 2 remains open, but Pakistan’s hopes now rely as much on external results as on their own performance in the final match.