LAHORE, September 25 — Pakistan-India relations face growing risks from weakened crisis-management mechanisms, unresolved disputes and evolving military doctrines, former diplomats and security experts said at a seminar organised by the Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies (CASS) Lahore.
The seminar, titled “Pakistan-India Relations: Deterrence, Rivalry, and the Contours of Stability,” brought together academics, intellectuals, senior officers and domain experts to examine deterrence and the prospects for stability between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.
Ameer Abdullah Khan, Senior Research Associate at CASS Lahore, delivered the opening address.
Former Pakistan High Commissioner to India Ambassador Abdul Basit traced bilateral relations from the 2004-2008 engagement through subsequent crises, including the 2008 Mumbai attacks, the 2016 Uri episode, the 2019 Pulwama crisis and the 2025 Pahalgam confrontation.
Basit argued that India’s current approach towards Pakistan was influenced by its growing economic confidence and the domestic politics of the BJP government. He maintained that meaningful normalisation would remain difficult without progress on the Kashmir dispute.
He called for reciprocal diplomacy and greater strategic clarity in Pakistan’s approach towards India.
Ambassador Zamir Akram, a former diplomat and Advisor to the Strategic Plans Division, argued that the rivalry extended beyond Kashmir and was linked to competing regional security perceptions.
Discussing the evolution of Indian military doctrine, Akram referred to Cold Start and what he described as a newer “dynamic response strategy,” which he said sought to create space for limited conventional conflict below the nuclear threshold.
He also discussed the use of dual-capable systems and other conventional and sub-conventional tools. Akram argued that Pakistan’s calibrated responses had played a role in maintaining deterrence while limiting escalation.
Experts Highlight Risks of Accidental Escalation
Dr Salma Malik, Associate Professor at Quaid-i-Azam University Islamabad, highlighted the danger of routine incidents developing into larger crises when bilateral communication and crisis-management mechanisms are weak.
She argued that nuclear deterrence could help prevent deliberately initiated large-scale war but could not necessarily prevent an accidental conflict resulting from miscalculation or uncontrolled escalation.
Malik also identified the Indus Waters Treaty, Kashmir and deteriorating crisis-management mechanisms among the issues contributing to instability in bilateral relations.
The Indus Waters Treaty remains the subject of active international legal proceedings. The Permanent Court of Arbitration issued an award on August 31 concerning the status of the treaty following India’s decision to hold it “in abeyance,” while related proceedings remain ongoing.
Dialogue and Deterrence Key to Stability
In his closing remarks, CASS Lahore President Air Marshal Asim Suleiman (Retd) said India’s approach to limited conflict below the nuclear threshold had undergone a structural shift.
He identified Kashmir and the Indus Waters Treaty as major potential flashpoints and argued that coercive measures could not resolve the underlying disputes.
Suleiman called for a coherent strategy built around political stability, economic and technological strength, conventional and strategic deterrence, diplomacy and responsible crisis management.
The seminar concluded with an interactive discussion on deterrence modernisation, mechanisms for managing future crises and diplomatic and legal avenues available to Pakistan in dealing with its relationship with India.