The Japanese government has forecast that the likelihood of a “mega earthquake” occurring in the next 30 years has increased to 82%. According to a panel of experts, the earthquake is expected to have a magnitude of 8 to 9, which could trigger a massive tsunami, cause thousands of deaths, and result in billions of dollars in damages.
The Earthquake Research Committee stated that last year, the probability of such an earthquake was between 74 and 81%, but it has now risen to between 75 and 82%. Experts suggest that the epicenter of the earthquake will be near the southern coast of Japan, in the underwater region known as the Nankai Trough.
The Nankai Trough, located south of Japan’s Honshu Island, is an area where two tectonic plates collide. This underwater region, stretching for 800 kilometers, is prone to the accumulation of energy as tectonic plates get stuck during movement. When these plates finally separate, it releases a massive amount of energy, potentially leading to a devastating earthquake.
Severe earthquakes have occurred in the Nankai Trough every one or two years over the past 1,400 years, with the last major earthquake recorded in 1946. Experts warn that the chances of another earthquake are increasing by 1% every year, with the last earthquake having occurred 79 years ago.
According to government estimates, small islands near the coast could be submerged by 30-meter-high tsunami waves, while densely populated islands like Honshu and Shikoku could be struck by large waves within minutes of the earthquake.
In 1707, the entire Nankai Trough ruptured simultaneously, leading to one of Japan’s second most powerful earthquakes in recorded history.
