Following the US’s regime change drama in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey are in serious talks on a security alliance that observers are likening to an ‘Islamic NATO’. According to foreign news agency Bloomberg, Turkey is in talks to become part of this security framework, which is similar to the NATO model of collective defense. Is this a NATO-style agreement? The proposed agreement includes a clause similar to NATO’s Article 5, under which an attack on one member will be considered an attack on all member states. The agreement was initially reached between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, but now the possibility of Turkey’s participation has become apparent.
Proposed Structure of a New Security Alliance
What will be the potential role of these three countries? According to Nihat Ali Ozcan, a defense analyst with the Ankara-based think tank (TEPAV), in the proposed alliance, Saudi Arabia will provide financial assistance, Pakistan will provide nuclear deterrence, ballistic missile capability and manpower, and Turkey will play the role of military expertise and local defense industry.
Shifting Regional Alignments and Strategic Interests
Due to the US prioritizing its own and Israeli interests in the region, regional conflicts, and the changing situation, countries are being forced to form new alliances and defense mechanisms in order to clearly identify friends and enemies. One question arises: what will be the common interests of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan? According to people familiar with the matter, the strategic interests of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan are now becoming more aligned with each other in South Asia, the Middle East, and parts of Africa, due to which the expansion of this alliance is being considered a natural step.
Growing Military Cooperation Among Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan
According to the Turkish Defense Ministry, military ties between the three countries are already strengthening. The first joint naval meeting of the three countries was recently held in Ankara, which is a sign of practical progress in defense cooperation. The possible alliance is also of particular importance because Turkey is a long-standing member of NATO and has the second largest army in NATO after the United States, which makes it an exceptional military power in the region.
Shared Concerns Over Iran and Regional Stability
Both Saudi Arabia and Turkey have concerns about Iran, but both countries favor engagement with Tehran rather than military confrontation. In addition, both countries support the establishment of a stable Syria and a Palestinian state under Sunni leadership.
Existing Defense Ties and Recent Regional Conflicts
Turkey and Pakistan already have strong defense ties. Turkey is developing corvettes for the Pakistani Navy, has modernized Pakistan’s F-16 fighter jets, and is sharing drone technology with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. It has invited both countries to join its fifth-generation fighter jet ‘Kan’ project. The trilateral defense consultation comes after a four-day standoff and ceasefire between India and Pakistan in May 2025. Turkey had openly supported Pakistan during the conflict, known as Operation Sindoor.
Rethinking Dependence on US Security Guarantees
The idea of abandoning blind dependence on American defense guarantees in the Gulf countries is a significant event of this century. It is actually an indication of the change in the geopolitical position that began after the 1970s with the Middle East’s attachment to the United States. Gradually, the Gulf monarchies became completely dependent on Washington for their security and economy. American weapons, military bases, military training and especially the ‘security umbrella’ became the main pillars of their security.
The Afghanistan Withdrawal and Strategic Awakening
The first tremor in this static situation occurred when the US withdrew from Afghanistan. At that time, the Gulf countries realized for the first time that Washington could push the region towards instability at any moment based on its own interests. After that, these states began to lean towards China and Russia. For example, relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran were restored under Chinese mediation, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and OPEC cooperation with Russia was expanded.
Israeli Actions and the Questioning of US Protection
This idea found its real foundation when the Israeli attack on Qatar shook the entire region. This incident was not only a moment of reflection for the Gulf states but also a major question mark on the foundations of the security policy based on US defense guarantees. The way the US has played the recent game in Iran has brought this contradiction to the fore, that is, the US provides a defense umbrella to the Gulf countries, but when Israel attacks, this umbrella is practically ineffective.
Emerging Gulf Security Debates and Constraints
This fact has forced other Gulf states, including Qatar, to reorganize their defense strategies. This is the first time that intellectuals and military planners of the Gulf countries are openly discussing the ‘Crescent Security Initiative’. It should be noted that there is no environment of freedom of expression in the Gulf states where any individual or institution can openly criticize government policies or offer alternative suggestions.
Longstanding Military and Economic Dependence on the United States
The fact is that the United States has been blackmailing the Arab monarchies for decades in the name of its military presence, defense contracts, and investment. One of the background to this is that more than 70 percent of the military equipment of the Gulf states has come directly from American companies, while most of the remaining weapons and defense equipment are also obtained from NATO countries controlled by the United States.
US Bases and Troop Presence Across the Gulf
It should be noted that Saudi Arabia had agreed on a comprehensive defense package of $ 142 billion with Washington in 2017, which was later increased. This agreement was made in the context of Saudi security. In this regard, Saudi Arabia purchased weapons worth $ 25 billion from the United States in 2024 alone. Al Dhafra Air Base, near Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates, is a key hub for US war strategy. In recent years, the Emirates has also signed defense and technology deals worth more than $200 billion with the US.
About 10,000 US troops were stationed at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, but they are now being withdrawn, and it was from here that the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq were controlled. Bahrain has been the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet since the 1991 Defense Cooperation Agreement, which is a symbol of US naval power in the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea. Kuwait has had a permanent presence of 13,000 US troops and several military bases since the Gulf War, while Oman, although relatively cautious, has also opened its ports to the US Navy.
Technology, Finance, and the Petrodollar System
The Gulf countries have also been largely indebted to the US in terms of civil technology. This can be estimated from the fact that these countries have signed agreements worth four trillion dollars with the United States in the field of technology and artificial intelligence during 2025. Economically, these states are also completely tied to the United States. The agreement between Saudi Arabia and Washington in the 1970s laid the foundation for the petrodollar system.
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According to it, Gulf oil will be sold only in US dollars and the proceeds will be transferred to US bonds and treasuries. This arrangement made the dollar the global currency, made Washington the axis of the global economy, and tied the Gulf states to the US.
Gulf Wealth and Deep Financial Interconnections
Today, the Gulf countries have invested more than a trillion dollars in US financial markets. In addition, the personal wealth of the Gulf ruling families is also linked to the US. A large part of the Al Saud family’s wealth, worth about one and a half trillion dollars, is invested in real estate and financial investments in the United States. Most of the wealth of the Al Thani family of Qatar, worth two hundred to three hundred billion dollars, is in American banks and companies. Ninety percent of the wealth of the Al Nahyan family of the Emirates is invested in projects in New York, California and Silicon Valley.
A similar situation is also with the royal families of other Gulf countries. It can be said that the security, technology and economy of the Gulf states have been completely dependent on the United States. In such a situation, it has been seen for the first time that countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar have started a serious effort to get out of American influence.
