What is happening in Iran is not just a violent protest, but a new installment of an old movie. The script is written in Washington, the direction is by the regional situation, and the acting is by the local people, but the end result is always the same: chaos, bodies, statements, and then a military crackdown.
Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei’s statement that “the evildoers want to please the American president” may seem like a cliché to some, but the problem is that history has proven it right time and again. Whenever there is a fire in the Middle East, there are always empty boxes of American geostrategic matches around it.
Interestingly, the protests were first against inflation, then against the system, and now they have reached the point of calling for the restoration of the monarchy. That is, the same old Eastern recipe. It starts with “bread is expensive,” reaches “the system is failing,” and then takes on the tune of “need a savior,” beats to the beat of “the past was golden,” and culminates in “come call the king back.”
From economic grievances to calls for monarchy
This is the same monarchy that the Iranian people buried in 1979 with such enthusiasm that even flowers will not be placed on its grave anymore, but the exiled crown prince still believes that just one tweet, one American statement, and a package of “humanitarian sympathy” will restore the throne. On the other hand, there is America, which first calls every protest “human rights,” then “democratic struggle,” and finally “national security” issues, seeking justification for intervention by considering itself a global authority. If Iran did not have oil and was not anti-American, perhaps even Trump would not know where Tehran is located on the map.
Sanctions, economic pressure, and public frustration
On the other hand, Iran has not been able to deliver on its economic interests in the public interest for forty-six years under international sanctions, due to which the public is naturally disgusted after almost half a century. That is, the spark is present among the Iranian people, and America is fanning it.
Protesters are on the streets in Tehran. In these demonstrations, slogans of “Pahlavi will return” are echoing, which clearly shows that America wants a new regime change. The Iranian regime certainly has flaws, but the question is also important: does America really care about the Iranian people?. Absolutely not.
Risks of external intervention and regional fallout
Iran is on fire, but the flames of this fire will not be limited to Tehran alone. History says that when America comes for “help”, first comes coffins, then agreements, and finally apologies that “the situation turned out differently than we expected.” The question is that Iran is not yet ready for regime change because there is no alternative leadership on the ground. There is no immediate change in Iran, but yes, an attempt is being made to move sand with the hands of the regime.
A question mark has been placed on the future. A wrong statement, a wrong step or a direct clash of forces with the people can completely change the scene. The Revolutionary Guards are still being used. The military is not directly confronting the protesters.
Internal reforms as a necessity for stability
Even if the Iranian government manages to control the protesters, the regime will have to make changes within itself. It will have to take the public into its confidence. It will have to give windows to society. It will have to limit state interference in the daily lives of the people through the Revolutionary Guards. It will have to focus on restoring the economy. A lot will have to change. So that a new wave of anger does not emerge with greater intensity in the near future.
Fears of military escalation and external statements
The majority in Iran believe that there could be military action by the US or Israel amid the protests in Iran. They probably have intelligence reports that suggest that preparations should be made for action. On the other hand, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that it is very possible that we are standing at a decisive moment, a moment in which the Iranian people will take their fate into their own hands.
The US and Israel are fully prepared, but it is necessary to lay the groundwork, which has not yet been done, to control the people, including the leadership, in Iran. Regime change in Iran is impossible right now. If it is done, the situation will be very bad and many people will lose their lives.
Comparisons with Venezuela and questions of occupation
After Venezuela, analysts are exploring the question of whether Iran is going to be occupied by the US?
Also Read: Background to the attack on Venezuela
A few months ago, when Israel and the United States attacked Iran, the people were united, which resulted in the enemy’s failure. But suddenly, what happened was that the people of Iran took to the streets? Did these people take to the streets on their own or were they brought under a plan?
Protest movements, organization, and foreign influence
In fact, the enemy had understood that unless the people are incited by complaining about internal problems and the government and the people are brought face to face by organizing protests within the country, our mission cannot be successful. Unfortunately, in countries like Iran or Pakistan, there are issues like governance that keep the people restless. From here, the real game begins.
The people are taken out in the name of rights and a clean face is put in front to lead. And external agents control things to the right, left or behind the scenes and bear all the expenses incurred on the protests.
In this way, the people talk about rights and the person leading it is also good. In this way, day by day, the people start to be inclined towards the fact that this is a protest for our benefit, so it is necessary to be a part of it.
Funding, social media, and public perception
People from countries like ours are also in foreign countries and some of them become their facilitators and gradually start sending funds to the country to run the movement. Which makes it difficult to prove that there is external funding behind this protest. Because it is a fact that it is not possible to run any movement without a lot of capital.
Those who run such movements are proven to be heroes and those who say to act with reason and understanding or patience and tolerance, a team is already ready on social media to silence such people by calling them facilitators or traitors.
Because people in the Third World are not so intelligent and forget that they control social media and can give as many likes, shares and views as they want to anyone.
Lessons from Syria, Iraq, and Libya
This game has been played in many Islamic countries before, while the conditions in these countries were very good before these protests, and look at their situation today, such as Syria, Iraq, and Libya.
The people there jumped into this quagmire with their petty issues that there is no way out. Till date, in any movement of Muslim countries, only the bodies of the youth have fallen. The youth have not achieved anything besides this.
Warnings for Iran and the wider Muslim world
The names of the dead have always been wailed so that seeing this fame, other youths also give their lives. Until today, no one has given rations to the homes of such martyrs for a single moment.
The people of Iran should test the tricks of colonialism before the enemy succeeds in its goal. And the other Muslim countries should also keep an eye on their surroundings. Is there no such trap being set in their country?
Diverging narratives and voices from within Iran
“Everything is fine, the situation is normal, this is all the mischief of a few miscreants and ordinary Iranians have no problem with it.” But the views of Iranian friends with whom there is constant and direct contact are completely different from this narrative.
In the responses of these Iranians, a few agreed points have emerged that explain the current situation from a completely different angle.
Grievances of Iranian intellectuals and the educated class
Iranian intellectuals and the educated class are deeply fed up with the oppression, suffocation, and political restrictions of the system. According to them, Iran is no longer in a position to compete with the developed world at any level.
The democracy that is claimed in the country is in fact so-called, limited, and completely controlled, where the real opinion of the people has no effective status.
Inflation, sanctions, and daily hardship
Severe inflation has made the life of ordinary Iranians unbearable. Access to daily necessities is becoming increasingly difficult.
According to Iranians, only those foreigners or foreign students who are living on state benefits, scholarships, or special facilities are relatively safe, while life is constantly becoming more difficult for ordinary citizens.
There is a growing sense among ordinary Iranians that the country’s resources are being spent on foreign proxies, regional interventions, and foreign projects rather than on the well-being of the people.
Sanctions and the lost economic potential
As a result of unnecessary confrontations and constant “stabs,” Iran is under international sanctions that have severely crippled its economy. Iranians themselves believe that if it were not for these sanctions, Iran would be one of the richest countries in the Middle East in terms of natural resources.
Protests are currently underway in the country, and according to the Iranian people, the system is going through its most difficult, harsh and fragile period since the revolution.
Listening to lived realities over slogans
The truth is that it is easy to sit back and wrap up the situation in slogans and narratives, but it is more important to listen to the people who are suffering from these conditions in their daily lives.
If you talk about economic hardship, Pakistan, Europe and America are more affected than Iran, there are also more protests there. Ask those who earn 2,300 dollars and euros.
Historical patterns of resistance and sanctions
It is true that when you rise up against colonialism and capitalism, economic sanctions expose the people of that state to severe economic and political problems, whether it is the Soviet Union, East Germany, Mao’s China or Fidel Castro’s Cuba.
There are different groups in every state, no one gets an absolute majority, but you don’t understand the Iranian mentality, what is your fault in this?
Rejection of foreign domination
They are fed up with the existing system, but they do not like any foreign domination, especially American and Israeli domination.
Dr. Mossadegh was the national voice of Iran who was against Western and Israeli domination. Iranians have experience with this, so they do not want to be victims of such a conspiracy again.
Libya, Syria, and the use of armed groups
In such situations, the US plays its own tricks. How terrorist groups were used to break the state in Libya. The war against Gaddafi was not fought with a popular uprising, but armed groups were brought in from outside, given money, weapons and a media narrative, and then this destruction was called democracy.
Libya is still suffering the consequences of this. The same model was repeated in Syria. Those who were called rebels there were actually terrorists affiliated with organized ISIS who received open funding.
Media narratives and geopolitical manipulation
Statements by the alternative media and many US officials themselves continued to confirm that these groups were given money, facilitated and used to weaken the state from within.
This was no secret, everyone knew. The same terrorist networks were gathering in Afghanistan. Russian President Vladimir Putin told the world this many times, the alternative media warned repeatedly, but the Western media blacked out this news.
Regional spillover and current realities
Today, the situation has proven itself. The UAE’s activities in Afghanistan, India’s open defense agreement, and the attacks on Pakistan from Afghan soil are all part of the same picture. The same group has also entered Iran.
Creating chaos is the easiest thing in the world. There is opposition in every country, there is unrest in every society.
Global inflation and protest dynamics
America’s policy of printing huge amounts of money has spread inflation and poverty all over the world. Governments around the world are bearing the brunt of this, as a result of which when people take to the streets, peaceful protests are turned into unrest by including terrorists.
The world has understood this well. When money is distributed, many people are forced to use it due to economic conditions.
Media amplification and the perception of crisis
This is what happened in Syria, terrorists received huge amounts of money and the entire country was thrown into flames.
The same game is being played in Iran. The protests are limited, but the media is making it look like the whole of Iran is burning.
The reality is that Iran is not burning, an attempt is being made to burn Iran.
The broader geopolitical argument
The root of all these problems is the same. America is in a severe economic crisis. If it does not wage war, does not involve China in a major conflict, does not clash with Russia and China and change the rules of the world and do a “Great Reset”, then it cannot save itself.
This is the compulsion, and in this compulsion the world is being pushed into the fire once again.
Escalation fears and the next battlefield
Iran is the last man standing. Whether someone likes it or not, but it was Iran that has bitten Israel.
Russia, Australia and other countries have recalled their people from Iran, including the people from the embassy. And the worrying thing is that Russia has also recalled its diplomats from Israel.
Donald Trump has also stated that we are locked and loaded and ready to go.
This means that a new battlefield is now being prepared where Iran will be attacked first from within and then surrounded from all sides.
