This question is a matter of surprise for defense analysts, but the background is that America has now come to its knees before India to block the path of China—an economically emerging global power and an expected future superpower. Previously, America threatened India to stop buying oil from Russia or face increased tariffs, and it even raised them. However, India neither stopped buying oil from Russia nor responded to America’s threats. Frustrated, Trump began mocking India and Modi in public, yet India still did not respond.

Instead, it began improving political and trade relations with Russia and started bettering ties with China by reaching a compromise on the 78-year-old Ladakh issue.
Before this, India played its biggest shot by completing a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the European Union, which had been stalled for two decades. This deal was called the “Mother of All Deals.”

Now, approximately a year later, a trade agreement has been reached between India and America. Looking at it, India has completely surrendered to America and was only able to get one of its conditions accepted. When the Modi government refused the US demand to stop buying Russian oil, America had increased the tariff from twenty-five percent to fifty percent.

To pressure America, Indian Prime Minister Modi visited China and tried to improve relations, and also invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to India. But despite all this, Modi could not win over President Trump. According to the current agreement reached by the Indian government, India will not buy any oil from Iran and Russia; instead, oil will be purchased from America. Furthermore, Indian markets have been opened to America.

India was against agricultural commodities to protect the interests of Indian farmers, but it has backed down from this stance, and Indian markets have now been opened for agricultural products as well. India will not impose any tariffs on American goods, while it has convinced America to set a tariff one percent lower than that of Pakistan. Now, America will impose an eighteen percent tariff on Indian goods, whereas the tariff on Pakistan is nineteen percent.

In a way, America has completely floored India, but even then, India was demanding a lower tariff than Pakistan and agreed to one percent less than Pakistan. India’s hatred for Pakistan can be estimated from this fact. After the trade deal with America, India also wants to create problems for Pakistan’s exports. Before this, India and the European Union agreed on a mutual Free Trade Agreement, and it is expected to be signed in mid-2027. Currently, Pakistan holds GSP Plus status, under which tariffs on Pakistani exports to Europe are zero. Meanwhile, due to its improving economy, India has been moved out of the GSP Plus list.

Once the Free Trade Agreement between India and the EU is finalized, Pakistan will face competition with Indian goods in Europe as well. Thus, this is a challenge. Pakistan’s authorities should pay attention to this and reduce interest rates and energy prices to lower production costs so that our industrial goods can compete with Indian products in America and Europe. Additionally, there is a need to focus on Central Asian and African countries to find new markets.

While India will gain some economic benefits from trade agreements with America and Europe, its strategic interests with Iran, Russia, and China will suffer severe damage, after which India will become completely isolated in the region. This deal has sent a wave of joy through India’s investor and business classes, with the biggest beneficiary being India’s textile industry.

On the other hand, European cars, whose future had turned dark due to Chinese vehicles, will now see tariffs in the 1.5 billion-person market drop from 110 percent to 40 percent. This means that while a Chinese car will enter the Indian market with a 110 percent tariff, a European car will enter with a 40 percent tariff, making European cars cheaper than Chinese ones. Meanwhile, the Indian textile industry will become cheaper than any other country’s textiles in the European market due to being tariff-free.

Through this, India wants to cause losses to Pakistan, Bangladesh, China, and other Asian countries. Through the “Mother of All Deals,” Europe and India have surprised both China and America in one leap. After this agreement, Europe will not need China because a market representing one-fourth of the world’s population is sufficient for Europe. On this pretext, India will also bring European technology into its country and replicate it.

Countries that keep their foreign policy independent and prioritize their national interest over any external agenda will progress and move forward. Countries whose foreign policy is in the hands of a mental patient like Trump will sink with the Titanic.

Trump is a sinking ship that will drown America and its allies as well; that is why countries like those in Europe and Canada are jumping off this sinking ship. The trade agreement between India and the European Union is a victory for Europe—and a response to Trump. This is because India’s industry has been excessively protected, and India has always shielded its Tatas, Birlas, and Ambanis through heavy tariffs. Therefore, this is being seen as a concession given by India.

For example, the Congress government did not allow any car into India except its hereditary car for several decades. This was India’s intense nationalism. Trump also has the same complaint—that America has placed very low tariffs on Indian goods while India sits with heavy tariffs on American products. Since India was under intense pressure from Trump, it was forced to make this deal. In a trade between a developed and a weaker economy, the benefit of free trade goes to the stronger one. India will sell garments, textiles, raw materials, and IT products, while Europe will sell its high-end products, car parts, medicines, and electronics.

Pakistan’s GSP Plus status from Europe is a brilliant concession in its best form because Europe has given unilateral benefits to Pakistan, while Pakistan has imposed heavy duties on European goods. The agreement between India and the EU, being called the “Mother of All Trade Deals,” includes tariff reductions, investment, technology, green energy, and supply chains.

The real question is whether this deal is a new game played by America in the South Asian region, and can this deal be as large as the trade between India and America in 2024? The reality is that this does not seem possible at present, because China has now moved so far ahead that it cannot be caught even by running at full gallop.

Annual bilateral trade between India and America is over $196 billion, which decreased to $96 billion in 2025, while the total bilateral trade volume with the European Union is estimated at $136 billion.

This is not just an economic decision but a new war for balance in global politics. That is, this deal with America has certainly come with big claims, but time will decide its actual success.