Over the past few years, the weakening of the US grip on the Middle East and the rise of China have led to unprecedented changes in the economic, political and defense dynamics of the Gulf, especially the restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran and Saudi Arabia’s defense agreement with Pakistan, which has changed the geopolitical status of the region, which has led to changes in global relations and regional conflicts in the Middle East.
On Tuesday, in support of the legitimate government of Yemen, the Saudi air force targeted two ships loaded with military equipment that were being transported from the Emirati port of Fujairah to the southern Yemeni region of Mukalla. “The purpose of these weapons was to fuel the internal conflict in Yemen by reinforcing the forces of the UAE-backed Northern Transitional Council in Hadhramaut and Al-Mahra,” coalition spokesman Major General Turki Al-Maliki said. Shortly after the airstrike, the UAE agreed to withdraw its forces from Yemen within 24 hours, averting a potential conflict with Saudi Arabia, on the orders of Rashid al-Alimi, the head of Yemen’s Presidential Council.
But the crisis in southern Yemen, sparked by the advance of the UAE-backed Northern Transitional Council separatist faction, has exposed contradictions spanning everything from oil prices to geopolitical interests. The latest tensions stemmed from the misreporting of talks in Washington in November between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and US President Donald Trump on the Sudanese uprising.
But Saudi Arabia’s social, political and economic reforms are also posing a threat to the economic interests of smaller Gulf states, especially the construction of the new commercial city of Neom on the Gulf of Aden in the northwest, which was considered contrary to the economic and strategic interests of the UAE, which was confirmed by Yemen’s Houthi commander with his revelation that the Emiratis had been encouraging them to attack the city of Neom under construction by Saudi Arabia.
In this context, the campaigns by the Emirati-backed Northern Transitional Council to restore a separate state in the form of South Yemen have been interpreted as a ploy to keep Saudi Arabia entangled in a conflict from which it had come close to escaping, by dealing a blow to the Presidential Council’s peace talks with the Houthi rebels.
Yemen’s Fragmented Conflict
Yemen has been embroiled in a civil war between the Iranian-backed Houthis and the central government since 2015. Although the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) is ostensibly part of the PLC, which is opposed to the Houthis and is led by the president, it has also been engaged in a campaign to establish an independent state in southern Yemen amid the chaos, which has led to Yemen becoming increasingly fragmented, with most of the country controlled by three main groups: the PLC, the STC and the Houthis. The Yemeni separatist movement, the Northern Transitional Council, was formed on 11 May 2017.
It emerged in Aden after mass protests against the removal of its leader, Idriss al-Zubaidi, who had joined the PLC as the head of the 26-member council.
The council’s stated goal is to restore the state of southern Yemen that existed between 1967 and 1990. With the support of the United Arab Emirates, the STC has gained significant regional influence in southern Yemen, including the capture of the port city of Aden. The STC has not abandoned its fundamental demand for the independence of southern Yemen, despite accepting power-sharing with Yemen’s internationally recognized government. Last week, the STC took a new turn in the Yemeni conflict by attacking large parts of the oil-rich Hadhramaut governorate, including the presidential palace in Sion, provoking Saudi Arabia.
The Role of the Presidential Leadership Council
The Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) was established in 2022 when former Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi formally transferred his powers to a new eight-member council, whose mandate is to manage Yemen’s political, security, and military affairs during the transitional period and advance negotiations for a permanent ceasefire. The Presidential Council is headed by Rashid al-Alimi, an advisor to Hadi and former interior minister under the late President Ali Abdullah Saleh.
The council is made up of politicians and military commanders from both the north and south, including the UAE-backed STC. At the PLC’s inception, al-Alimi pledged to make ending the civil war, bringing economic stability, and ending the humanitarian crisis in the country his top priority, but since 2022, conflicts of interest among PLC members have largely rendered it ineffective.
The Houthis’ Position
Ansar Allah, commonly known as the Houthis, is an Iranian-backed armed group that controls at least five provinces in the northern and northwestern parts of the country, including the capital Sanaa, as well as several areas bordering Saudi Arabia. During the insurgency that began in the 1990s, the Houthis fought at least six wars with Yemeni government forces under ousted leader Ali Abdullah Saleh. Saleh was forced to step down as a result of mass protests against him during the Arab Spring that began in 2011, which further strengthened the Houthis.
The Houthis later fought a Saudi-led military coalition, but the internal fighting has largely subsided since the restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2022. In November 2023, the Houthis targeted military and civilian aircraft carrying aid to Israel in the Bay of Aden. The aim of this campaign was to pressure Israel to stop the genocide of Muslims in Gaza. After the US launched airstrikes on Houthi targets using this anti-Israel campaign as justification, the anti-Houthi faction in Yemen, the STC, became desperate for American support for the redistribution of Yemen.
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The same groups affiliated with the UAE indicated that they would launch military operations in all areas controlled by the pro-Iranian Houthis, including the port of Hodeidah, in order to gain the approval of world powers. Analysts are correct in their impression that the STC was hoping for American support to capture Hodeidah, but the failed Hodeidah campaign reduced its importance. The Houthis are currently at the top militarily. The Houthis still control Sanaa and most of northwestern Yemen, while various anti-Houthi groups have captured the important port city of Aden and most of southern and eastern Yemen. It is maintained.
Competing Factions and External Influence
The PLC also includes members who have fought against the Yemeni government in the recent past, including Idris al-Zubaidi, head of the separatist Southern Transitional Council, and Tariq Saleh, nephew of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was once an ally of the Houthis. “We have seen anti-Houthi factions lobbying for US support since the beginning of the Gaza crisis,” Brumfield, a Yemeni expert, told the media.
Both the Yemeni government and the Southern Transitional Council have been competitively presenting themselves as needing a US partner on the ground against the Houthis, and according to media reports, the US is still in talks to provide air support for the anti-Houthi ground operation in Yemen. The WSJ specifically noted that the UAE has raised the project with the US, but so far there has been no significant movement on the ground from anti-Houthi Yemeni armed groups, rather the opposite is true, as the Saudis no longer want to join the war against the Houthis.
After years of fighting, the Saudis and Houthis agreed to a ceasefire in 2022, which left the future of the Yemeni government and anti-Houthi groups uncertain. In the context of global conditions, it will be difficult for Western powers, including the US and Israel, to find a proxy for the Yemeni war because, thanks to the unprecedented increase in Saudi Arabia’s defense force after the defense agreement with Pakistan, regional powers are no longer able to be part of any adventure against Saudi Arabia in the Gulf of Aden, including on the Yemeni front.
