“At 4am on Wednesday, China’s ambassador to Pakistan hurried to the foreign ministry to celebrate an unprecedented military success”, the British Newspaper “The Telegraph” reported. Well, that’s a true sign of friendship i.e. higher than Himalayas and deeper than the oceans. Inter alia, on Saturday’s morning, the Indian air force witnessed a precise retaliation “Bunyan-al-Marsoos”, named after an ayat, from its western neighbour just after Fajar. A bold shift has been seen in the doctrine of Pakistan from tactical posture during Pulwama incident of 2019 to the operational and strategic posture during ongoing situations in wake of Pahalgam incident of April 22. The aggressive and blunt false flag operation by India has met a calculated operational response with Pakistan’s JF-17 Thunder Block III and the Chengdu J-10C, while roaring in the skies, have taken out India’s strong air defense system, the S-400, without any civilian casualty. Three days earlier, Godzilla 4 was kept 300 km away and then struck down by the Chengdu J-10C, with PL-15 missiles and Mach 5 speed (a visualization of Pak-China bonhomie). Pakistan has clearly conveyed its message that any attempt of aggression will be met by decisive retaliation.Yesterday, the joint conference of tri security services of Pakistan briefed international media about the belligerent posture of India and just after hours it unlocked its right of retaliation to validate its claim. Indeed, this shift in Pakistan’s doctrine is a pre-emptive strategy to avoid skirmishes in the future.Its hacking of the Indian official social media accounts, 70% electricity grids and CCTV demonstrates a comprehensive defensive strategy. This transition in posture envisions Pakistan’s motive for a peaceful region by sustaining deterrence under the conventional threshold.
Moreover, the vulnerability of South Asia in terms of nuclear war is undeniable as both parties are capable of nuclear arsenals which have prevented the region from full-fledged war till now. Pakistan’s doctrine of full spectrum deterrence has a similar purpose that is to avoid the escalation of Indian aggression under the nuclear umbrella. To maintain this, the parties in conflict have preferred air combat and missile warfare.Two days before, on 7th May , Pakistan gave a serious blow to Indian prestige by shooting down its five aircrafts which made India jump the escalation ladder and attack multiple areas of Pakistan allegedly calling them terrorist camps including sites of worship of Muslims and Sikhs,but in turn, again tasted setback. Unfortunately, this tit-for-tat cycle is giving space to nuclear shadows to loom larger and of course, any miscalculation will let both to cross the threshold and march towards nuclear combat for the nuclear deterrence is still intact but fragile.
In all this warfare, jingoism of India cannot be set aside. Its drunk and irrational pawns have just added fuel to the public hyperbolic nationalist sentiments when the people cannot see the other side of the matter as truth has been gagged up. It loves to live in fiction but the ongoing situation is not a cinematic spectacle. In the 21st century, nothing can be hidden in the age of virtual private networks. The irresponsible behavior of the well known journalists of our eastern border has added insult to the scenario. The international media has also fallen prey to false reporting. It needs to fact check in this era of fifth generation warfare of misinformation and disinformation . Making noise for security and simultaneously provoking the already agitated environment has been a tool of this one of the largest democracies to shape the perceptions inside and outside too matching words of Fehrenbach he wrote in his book This Kind Of War that when the government is left with no other option to achieve vested interests , it opens up the military end. However, this Machiavellian approach of manipulation and deception to maintain power will be hard to justify when now every falsehood has been removed from social media platforms after getting hacked by experts of their western neighbours. Although Pakistan’s media is not immune to propaganda too, but much more as compared to India,still it is appreciable that its public clearly voices out about false reporting.
Despite all this, the current situation holds a potential of a full fledged war in itself which will not remain limited to South Asia but its ripple effects will be seen if initiated. Till now, Pakistan suffered with 33 civilian casualties, 14 military injuries as a result of current skirmishes and definitely the daily operational costs also ails its infancy progressing economy.So, a massive death coupled with other damages ,like economic (as per Reuters report), cyber, and psychological, will be knocking at the door of both states if tensions sustain.
Throughout the time of skirmishes , the international community was offering good offices for peace and stability of South Asia yet no one of them was truly stepping up for this cause but then there emerged the most awaited silver lining in the smoky clouds, at least for current times, when the US President led the talks between India and Pakistan and claimed about reaching an agreement of ceasefire between India and Pakistan. Well, from the Pahalgam episode, each one of them has got what they want (most probably). For the Indian government, it was a matter of domestic political win, ‘forces’ of Pakistan have got their lost prestige among the public and the US President has come to know about which jet operates more efficiently. Mr. Trump’s thirst for resolution credit can’t be ignored of course. Now, the world has truly come to know that Pakistan’s expertise and precision is too evident to be ignored for it has clearly heard about what Pakistan has done in response to coward strikes (as per claim of DG ISPR). So, the world will continue to sing the songs of its bravery. Now, as Pakistan has equated its territorial breach systematic operational and strategic posture after a complete brief of the situation to the international world, it will be somehow satisfied with the ceasefire move backed by its assertive and proactive approach which it avoided for the purpose of non-escalation while limiting its capabilities Pulwama Incident as trusting India after ceasefires has always been risky for it has already been regarded as the ‘security provider of the region’ by the West so it reserves justification of its irrational acts for proving its title.Hope so, today’s suffering will haunt it to repeat such adventurism and breach of international conventions, especially Indus Water Treaty, in the future and now it should have come out from fool’s paradise of being a regional hegemon.Apart from military damage, it will have to give birth to lame excuses or a faulty list of achievements from its absurd claims. Now while Pakistan ‘rules’ the skies and the nation is filled with patriotic spirit, it must devise a contingency policy too to keep its public prepared for the emergencies in this age of climate disruptions as “violations” are India’s everyday drama. Well, today the Pakistanis will have a sound sleep for sure. For the time being, the ‘new normal’, including the irrational “Sindoor” of India, has been destroyed by “Bunyan-al-Marsoos” of Pakistan.
By: Nabiha Ahad
email: nabiha.ahad9800@gmail.com
