ISLAMABAD, November 4, 2026: China is considering new restrictions on the export of advanced solar manufacturing technologies, a move that could affect countries seeking to establish domestic production facilities while leaving international trade in finished solar panels unchanged.
The proposed framework, published by China’s Ministry of Commerce on October 16, covers 12 advanced solar manufacturing technologies as part of a broader revision of the country’s technology export regulations. Public consultation will remain open until November 15.
Under the proposal, exports of technologies used to manufacture perovskite and tandem solar cells, certain thin wafers and large-scale fluidised-bed polysilicon would be prohibited.
Other technologies, including tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon), heterojunction (HJT) and XBC solar cells, would face export restrictions requiring additional regulatory oversight rather than outright bans.
The ministry cited the growing application of advanced solar technologies in sensitive sectors, including aerospace and defence, as a reason for tighter controls.
China dominates the global solar manufacturing industry, accounting for more than 80% of production capacity across major manufacturing stages, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).
Its extensive manufacturing capacity has supported global solar adoption, although the industry continues to face oversupply and pricing pressures.
According to customs figures cited by Reuters, China’s solar equipment exports fell 6.4% year-on-year in September and declined 9.5% during the year to date, following the removal of an export tax rebate in April.
Muhammad Zaid Masood Khan, a PhD researcher at the National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST) and visiting researcher at the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC), told Wealth Pakistan that the proposed restrictions would have little direct effect on solar installations in Pakistan.
He explained that finished solar panels were excluded from the proposed controls, allowing countries dependent on Chinese imports to continue expanding renewable energy capacity.
However, establishing advanced solar cell, wafer or polysilicon manufacturing facilities could become more complicated because of technology licensing requirements.
Khan said Pakistani manufacturers seeking to adopt technologies such as TOPCon might need additional approvals or could consider established alternatives, including passivated emitter and rear cell (PERC) technology.
He identified government-to-government cooperation and joint ventures under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as possible routes for developing Pakistan’s domestic solar manufacturing industry.
Tim Buckley, Director of Climate Energy Finance, also expected limited immediate commercial disruption, noting that some technologies covered by the proposal, particularly perovskite cells, had not yet reached widespread commercial production.
He said solar module prices had remained below production costs for at least 18 months, while global manufacturing overcapacity could delay the commercial need for additional factories by two to three years.
For Pakistan, the proposed measures underline the difference between importing affordable solar equipment and developing domestic manufacturing capabilities.
While solar panel imports and module assembly are expected to face limited direct disruption, investment in advanced production technologies could increasingly depend on licensing arrangements and industrial partnerships.
China’s final regulatory framework, expected after the consultation period, will determine the scope of these restrictions and their implications for international solar technology transfers.