President Donald Trump has asserted that the war with Iran will end “very soon,” but the realities on the ground contradict this optimism. Speaking in Ireland, he suggested the conflict would conclude “right after election time,” referring to the US midterm polls in November. Yet wars are not mechanical affairs that can be switched off at will, and the volatile situation across the Middle East makes such predictions highly uncertain. If Washington is serious about ending hostilities, it must pursue direct negotiations with Tehran rather than relying on political timelines.
The urgency of a settlement is underscored by the widening scope of the conflict. Exchanges between US and Iranian forces have continued, while the fragile Saudi‑Houthi ceasefire has collapsed. The Houthis, aligned with Iran, have seized more territory in Yemen and are targeting the Bab al‑Mandeb strait to block Saudi vessels. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s East‑West oil pipeline — a critical alternative to the Hormuz route — has been struck, apparently from Iraqi territory. Riyadh has refrained from retaliating at Baghdad’s request, but the presence of pro‑Iran militias in Iraq raises the risk of further escalation.
Lebanon presents another grim front. Israel’s bombardment has devastated communities, killing thousands and displacing hundreds of thousands. A ceasefire in Lebanon was a crucial element of the Islamabad MoU, and its collapse threatens the broader framework for peace. These interconnected conflicts demonstrate that a regional ceasefire cannot wait until November.
As the aggressor in this war, the US must take the first step by halting hostilities against Iran. Tehran should reciprocate, but Washington’s responsibility is greater. Talks between Iran and Gulf states on reopening the Strait of Hormuz are scheduled in Oman, offering a potential breakthrough. A confidence‑building measure from the US — such as ending the blockade of Iranian ports and announcing a cessation of strikes — would strengthen the prospects for dialogue.
Wars are unpredictable, and the assumption that Washington can control the tempo of hostilities until November is misplaced. The conflict is deeply unpopular within the US itself, with reports suggesting that senior generals have advised against escalation. Persisting with this misadventure will only deepen instability across the region and erode America’s credibility further.
The path forward lies in diplomacy. Trusted third parties, including Pakistan and other regional states, can help reopen channels of dialogue. The Islamabad MoU remains the most credible framework for a negotiated settlement, and it is time for Washington to embrace it. Ending the war now would not only prevent further bloodshed but also restore the possibility of long‑term peace in a region already scarred by decades of conflict.