(Dr Zafar Khan Safdar)
The UN World Population Prospects Revision shows the world’s population is 8 billion, with 6.6 billion (82%) in less developed regions. By 2050, it is projected to reach 9.8 billion. The majority of this growth will occur in developing countries, where the population is projected to double. According to International Energy Agency (IEA), 900 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide have been released into the atmosphere as a result of human industrial activities, leaving 450 billion tonnes in the atmosphere. 80% of carbon dioxide emissions are attributed to industrialization, with the remainder emissions coming from land use practises like deforestation. During the 20th century, the use of fossil fuels has already raised global temperatures by 0.75°C and raised sea levels by 22 cm. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), sea levels might rise by 28–79 cm and global temperatures could climb by 1.1–6.4°C by 2100. In addition, there will be an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme climate events, and weather patterns will become less predictable. Health disparities and resource access are being made worse by climate change, which is disproportionately harming emerging nations and the poorest populations. The largest danger to world health in the 21st century, according to the Lancet UCL Commission on Managing the Health Effects of Climate Change, is climate change. The main cause is high consumption in wealthy nations, with the poorest affected in emerging nations. Goals for development and the eradication of poverty are hampered by the rapid population expansion brought on by high fertility. The majority of least developed nations continue to have birth rates exceeding five children per woman, which strains their few infrastructures and natural resources. Perhaps the most overlooked aspect of climate change is population.
Population problems and climate change are interconnected through adaptation and mitigation strategies. The relationship between population and climate change adaptation is a contentious issue, with debates surrounding the extent to which population is a key factor. The primary contributor to climate change is excessive consumption in wealthy nations with low or zero population growth. China and other lower-middle-income countries are contributing to a global increase in greenhouse gas emissions, despite population size being less significant. The future relationship between population dynamics and climate change will be influenced by the growth patterns and consumer behaviour of these nations. The increasing number of people on Earth will make it challenging to achieve climate-sustainable emissions in the future.
Rapid population growth negatively impacts human development, basic services, and poverty eradication, particularly in the context of climate change. Population reduction is a crucial development objective as it has a negative impact on economic growth. Fertility decline in developing countries fuels economic growth, while rapid population growth hinders Millennium Development Goal achievement and sustains poverty. Population growth is causing water scarcity, land degradation, soil erosion, deforestation, and migration to coastal areas, increasing vulnerability to climate change and increasing human migration.
Pakistan in the 21st century has been confronting the most important issues of rising population-poverty nexus and climate change. Prosperity and economic progress are hampered by these interrelated problems. Pakistan has not maintained its focus on environmental conservation despite early attempts to address these challenges, which has restricted its ability to slow down population growth. Rapid and uncontrolled population growth has a negative impact on the physical environment, reduces the carrying capacity of ecosystems, and makes both urban and rural areas more vulnerable to climate-related calamities. Living on marginal territory and in delicate ecosystems, the majority of the impoverished are ill-equipped to handle complex problems.
The progressive emergence of climate change and extreme weather occurrences provide significant concerns for Pakistan, particularly for the impoverished and marginalised populations. The local population is particularly susceptible due to the severity of water stress and soil degradation, which puts their lives and means of subsistence in jeopardy. Because there are no federal or provincial programmes for adaptation, communities have exercised autonomous adaptation, which has caused migration outward to urban areas. Pakistan’s population would have been shielded from the dangers of climate change by improving resilience and maintaining a healthy physical environment. However, the absence of a clear focus on protecting environmental resources has negatively impacted human health, reduced ecosystem productivity, and agriculture.
Pakistan needs a comprehensive strategy to integrate national development planning with environmental, population, and climate changes to improve ecosystem productivity, reduce migration pressure, improve agricultural sustainability, and enhance health indicators. The government should prioritize family planning, increase education, address climate change by transforming the agri-food system, build resilient cities, transition to sustainable energy and low-carbon transport, strengthen human capital, and align financing policies for climate action. To boost rural incomes and food security, the government needs to repurpose subsidies, promote climate-smart agriculture and livestock systems, and prioritize ecosystem restoration. The urban population is expected to increase from 38% in 2023 to 60% by 2050, necessitating integrated land use planning, increased investments in municipal services, energy efficiency, and clean transportation. Strengthening human capital is crucial for sustainable development and climate resilience.
The writer is Ph.D in Political Science, and visiting faculty at QAU Islamabad. His area of specialization is political development and social change. He can be reached at zafarkhansafdar@yahoo.com and tweet @zafarkhansafdar.
