WASHINGTON: The oil market is currently tight, but next year is likely to be in surplus and Brent prices will fall into the mid-to-high $70 range, Morgan Stanley said.
The tension will persist for most of the third quarter, the bank said in a note on Friday, but balance will return in the fourth quarter “as seasonal demand eases.
Three sources told Reuters last week that OPEC+ was unlikely to recommend changing the group’s production policy at a mini-ministerial meeting next month, leaving in place a plan to begin easing one layer of oil production cuts from October.
Refinery output is expected to peak in August this year and is unlikely to return to that level until July 2025, the company said.
Morgan Stanley left its Q3 2024 Brent crude price forecast unchanged at $86 a barrel.
