According to Topline Research, a local economic research institution, the inflation rate for this month is likely to be between 4.5% and 5%. Topline Research has released its report on Pakistan’s economic situation, indicating that this month, inflation will fall below 5% for the first time in 78 months. The average inflation rate over the past five months is expected to be 7.91%, compared to an average of 28.62% in the first five months of last year.
The report anticipates a 0.2% monthly increase in food prices, with prices of eggs, mung beans, tomatoes, and potatoes expected to rise by 5.35%. Additionally, charges in the housing, water, electricity, and gas sectors are projected to increase by approximately 0.11% monthly, primarily due to a 7% monthly rise in LPG prices. Electricity prices are expected to decline, as fuel price adjustments have been negative. However, the transportation sector may experience a 1.4% monthly increase due to rising petrol and diesel prices.
Topline Research forecasts that the interest rate will remain between 11% and 12% by December 2025, while the inflation rate for the fiscal year 2024-25 is expected to be between 7% and 8%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its inflation forecast downward from 12.7% to 9.5%, whereas the central bank, in its latest monetary policy, projected an average inflation rate of 11.5% to 13.5%.
The report further stated that inflation estimates could change in case of significant shifts in commodity prices.
