The United Nations has issued a stark warning: an estimated three million Afghans may return to their country in 2025, creating an overwhelming humanitarian crisis for a nation that is already battling immense challenges. This massive repatriation, triggered primarily by shifting refugee policies in Pakistan and Iran, is unfolding in an atmosphere of desperation, disorder, and despair. The global community must not remain indifferent.
The forced exodus of Afghans is neither voluntary nor dignified. Both Tehran and Islamabad have introduced strict new measures that are forcing undocumented Afghans to leave. Iran alone has set a July 6 deadline for four million “illegal” Afghan residents to exit its territory. Already, over 1.6 million Afghans have returned to their country this year, a figure that has surpassed the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees’ (UNHCR) 2025 forecast of 1.4 million returnees. The pace of return is accelerating. On July 4 alone, 50,000 people crossed from Iran into Afghanistan via the Islam Qala border one of the busiest crossing points.
According to Arafat Jamal, the UNHCR’s representative in Afghanistan, this return is “undignified, disorganised and massive.” Refugees are not just returning; they are being uprooted, brutalized and disoriented during a journey filled with hardship and humiliation. Many face arrests, intimidation, and forced expulsions, particularly in Iran. The trauma endured during their expulsion has left them vulnerable and ill-prepared for reintegration into an already struggling Afghanistan.
What is most alarming is that Afghanistan itself is unequipped to absorb these returnees. The nation is already in the throes of a deep economic and social crisis, worsened by international sanctions, internal displacement, and reduced humanitarian funding. The infrastructure especially in border areas is fragile. The United Nations is scrambling to provide emergency support, including water, sanitation, vaccination drives, and nutritional care, but resources are limited and already stretched thin.
The returnees, numbering over 30,000 per day, are putting tremendous pressure on the country’s fragile public services. Border regions are becoming congested and overwhelmed. Camps and reception centers that were designed to cater to a few thousand individuals are now hosting five to six times their capacity. Without urgent intervention, disease outbreaks, malnutrition, and civil unrest could soon follow.
It is important to recognize that while the policies of Iran and Pakistan are sovereign decisions, the consequences of these mass expulsions are regional and global. A destabilized Afghanistan does not just pose a moral issue it carries geopolitical risks. If Afghanistan spirals further into chaos, the resulting cross-border spillover could affect Central and South Asia, particularly in terms of security, migration, and regional trade.
In Pakistan’s case, while concerns about undocumented individuals and national security are valid, the expulsion process must be humane and orderly, especially for families who have lived in Pakistan for decades and have little or no connection to present-day Afghanistan. It is essential that policies do not violate international refugee laws and that repatriation is voluntary, safe, and dignified.
The international community, particularly Western nations that were involved in Afghanistan for over two decades, cannot wash their hands of responsibility. The unfolding crisis is not just an Afghan issue it is a direct consequence of failed international policies, abrupt military withdrawals, and years of instability fueled by foreign intervention.
What is needed now is a coordinated international humanitarian response. The UNHCR must be provided with urgent funding and logistical support. Donor nations should step up with financial aid, technical expertise, and diplomatic pressure to ensure that returnees are not abandoned. Regional cooperation among Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, and Central Asian states is crucial to manage this migration wave humanely and effectively.
In conclusion, Afghanistan stands at a humanitarian crossroads. If the world fails to act, this forced return could become a tipping point, worsening the plight of millions and plunging the region into further instability. The time to act is now with compassion, urgency, and global solidarity.
